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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However the latest race is profoundly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans improving together. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still